University entrance 2022: predicted grades and forward planning.

With the deadline for Oxbridge, medicine, veterinary science, and dentistry now passed, thoughts turn to the next UCAS deadline of January 26th. With suggestions in the press that competition for place will be very high, especially for Russell group Universities, now is the time for students to start planning.

Many schools and colleges will be running assessments or mock exams, either just before or just after the Christmas break. These are likely to contribute to predicted grade recommendations. For some students, this opportunity will be a chance to improve on end of year 12 exams and demonstrate to teachers that you are capable of getting the grades your university course is requiring.

So, what do you need in your plan, both to get the predicted grades you need and to actually achieve the grades at the end of the day?

Firstly, this is probably one of the last things that a student thinks about when starting A Levels but your chances of gaining good marks starts right at the beginning of your courses. A levels are, rightly so, difficult qualifications. They have an excellent reputation around the world and they are one of the entry routes to university. Your decision to study A Levels was probably because you want to go to university.

Step 1 of your plan is to start your research into universities and courses early in Year 12. This will give you an idea of the grades you will need to aim for.

Step 2: invest time and commitment into your subjects right from the start. Go the extra mile, read around the topic, read over your notes after lessons to ensure you understand, and if you have any areas that are difficult, ask for support. This can be from your teachers, or for some students, extra tutoring helps keep them on track and ensures deep understanding right from the beginning.

Step 3: always revise for assessments. Never think ‘this test doesn’t count for anything, but I’ll revise for mocks’. Revision will help deepen your understanding, will reduce the workload later and, very importantly, will help your teachers build up a picture of your knowledge and understanding that they will use when predicting your grade for university.

Step 4: Ask for regular feedback and act on it. Ask your teachers ‘am I on track to get the grade that I need for university? If not, what do I need to do?’

Towards the end of Year 12, conversations around predicted grades become more common. Many schools and colleges have end of year mocks and use these results as an indication of potential predicted grades. Usually, these can be modified, in theory, up to the UCAS deadline in October or January, although many schools will have internal deadlines and will not have any flexibility over these.

UCAS have produced guidance for schools regarding how to determine predicted grades. They say that predicted grades should be:

• aspirational but achievable – stretching predicted grades can be motivational for students

• determined by professional judgement – teachers have expertise and experience. They decide on predicted grades every year, they will have an internal process of checking and discussion, they know you and they know the subject.

• data-driven – using internal examinations to inform predictions.

UCAS also say that predicted grades should not be:

• affected by student, parental, guardian, or carer pressure – this is to reduce the risk that a student receives an offer, based on predicted grades that are not actually aspirational, they are unrealistic as this will lead to great disappointment on results day. Also, an inflated predicted grade could result in a student starting a course that they are not really suited for, academically and therefore wasting both time and money. Finally, universities can actually withdraw offers, if they feel a precited grade is ‘grossly inaccurate’. UCAS carry out research on the gap between predictions and results and universities are aware of this data.

• influenced by university or college entry requirements or behaviours – predicted grades should be set in isolation of an applicant’s university or college choice(s) . This means that if the course says you need an A, the school can’t just predict that if they do not think you are likely to achieve it.

• affected by student behaviour or background – predicted grades should be made objectively and disregard external factors. Teachers have to careful that they reflect on any preconceptions o mitigate against unconscious biases they may hold. Schools carry out staff training to ensure this.

Step 5: always research alternative courses with lower entry requirements. These can be your ‘insurance places’. So a student would typically have 2 aspirational choices, 2 mid-range choices and an insurance place needing much lower grades.

Step 6: continue to work as hard as you can through your courses. Once the results come out, if you have done better than predicted, it is possible to reject your university choice and look for an alternative. However, in 2022, there may not be as many places available through UCAS for this route. Another alternative is to take a year out and re-apply with your higher grades.